Versus consensus

Every price on this site says what the room thought a player was worth. This adds what everyone else thought, and what actually happened. Drift is where the consensus board had a player at his position minus where he finished — so positive means he beat his draft slot and negative means he did not. Sources and caveats.

873 matched picks, left to right in the order they were bid on. Red = bust, green = steal, gray = landed right where the board had him. Dashed lines mark where each season starts.

Drift per $ weights each pick by what it cost, so a $60 miss counts for more than a $1 one — otherwise a manager could look sharp by winning a pile of end-of-draft lottery tickets. Every figure is negative because the drafted group is a closed set while undrafted breakouts enter the finish list and push everyone down; the league as a whole sits at -10.8, so the last column — not the one before it — is the one that says who drafted well.