Draft simulator

Every opponent here is fitted to what they actually did across 2021–2025: how far above or below the market they pay by position, how much of the budget they burn in the opening third, how much they pile into their top three players, and the roster shape they build year after year. Bids resolve the way Sleeper's do — the highest valuation wins and pays a dollar more than the second-highest — so a player goes for what the runner-up was willing to pay, which is what makes an auction an auction.

Replaying 2025 with the models fitted only on 2021–2024, the simulator put the average pick within $4.17 of what was really paid, the thirty most expensive players within $7.27, and the median price of each roster slot within $1.67. Forty-five per cent of real prices landed inside the simulated range, against the fifty a calibrated model would manage. It leans about two dollars hot on running backs and four cold on wide receivers.

All 12 managers start on $200 with 15 roster spots to fill — $2400 and 180 players across the room.

An open draft: nobody is held back, so every one of the 180 roster spots is bid on and all 12 managers start on the full $200 — $2,400 in play.

Board depth: 472 players.